Not in a hundred years has the world been hit by a pandemic this deadly. This means that most of us –whether project designer, implementer or evaluator—have no previous experience on how to cope with a crisis of this scale, nor anticipated it when assessing and preparing against risks to project outcomes. Even worse, how do project managers handle not just one but two shocks during project implementation?

When we at the GEF IEO looked at how impact was scaled up in GEF-supported interventions, many of the interviewees used terms such as “magic moment”, “luck” or “perfect storm” when referring to how scaling-up happened “spontaneously” through serendipitous circumstances, even when the project itself had no concrete plans for scaling-up. On the other hand, we also know how seemingly successful programs can quickly fall apart under political and economic changes.